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中Chinese sources, read in the original

China Desk · 中国观察

What Beijing, Chinese customs and the Dalian and Zhengzhou exchanges are saying, and what it means for Brazilian soy, meat, pulp and energy.

CNY/BRL

R$ 0.8370

USD/CNY

¥ 6.6703

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5 things to know today

The day in one minute. What matters and why.

  1. 1
    MBRF doubled its profit without selling more. The merger paid the bill, and interest took a cut back

    The gain came from efficiency, not demand: with volumes down and China curbing South American beef, MBRF3 depends on delivering the remaining synergies and cutting debt.

  2. 2
    The dollar hit R$5.65, a 17-month high. For agribusiness, it cuts both ways

    A weak real fattens prices in reais and exporters' revenue (soy, meat, pulp), but makes fertilizer, crop protection and dollar debt pricier for those who haven't locked in the season.

  3. 3
    Farm defaults cut Banco do Brasil's profit by 66%. And the bank slashed dividends

    When agriculture's biggest lender tightens, farm credit gets pricier and more selective, and BBAS3 holders get less: the payout fell from 30% to 25%.

  4. 4
    Inflation slowed. Food didn't: up 1.04%, keeping rates high

    Expensive food leaves little room for a December rate cut, and high rates make credit pricier for the farmers producing that food. Good for food sellers; bad for those financing the crop.

  5. 5
    China Desk: Brazil's beef quota is gone. Until December, selling to China means a 67% tariff

    Until year-end, shipping beef to China doesn't pay. Meatpackers like BEEF3 and MBRF3 will sell that volume cheaper elsewhere. The next trigger is the 2027 quota.

Chart of the day

Brazil's real interest rate: Selic × 12-month IPCA

Selic 13.75%IPCA 4.63%Real rate 9.12%

A real rate near 9% a year is what makes agri credit so expensive, and agri fixed income so attractive.

Open the Terminal
Selic target
13.75%
IPCA 12m
4.63%

By the numbers

Selic

13.75%

Central Bank of Brazil

Real rate

9.12%

Selic minus 12m IPCA

IPCA 12m

4.63%

IBGE / BCB

USD/BRL

R$ 5.6554

+1.31%

Ibovespa

172,281

+0.56%

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