Coffee hit a six-week low and jumped 4% the next day. What's behind the swings
Brazil is exporting strongly and the 2027 crop looks good; on the other side, certified stocks in New York remain near lows.
To save you time3
- What happened to prices?
- March futures fell to 262.15 US cents per pound, a six-week low, and rose more than 4% the next day on a technical correction.
- What is pushing down?
- Strong Brazilian exports (October may exceed 5 million bags), a strong dollar and good weather for the 2027 crop.
- What supports prices?
- ICE certified stocks, just above 250,000 bags, near historic lows.
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Arabica in New York fell to 262.15 US cents per pound (March contract), a six-week low: then rose more than 4% the next day.
Why it fell
- Strong Brazilian exports: October shipments may exceed 5 million bags.
- A strong dollar, encouraging farmer selling.
- Good weather for the 2027 crop.
Why it bounced
Technical correction and short covering. And one thing hasn't changed: ICE certified stocks, just above 250,000 bags, remain near historic lows.
In Brazil
The Cepea arabica indicator was R$1,597 per bag on Nov 9.
What I would watch
A market with tight stocks and incoming supply lives on bounces. For sellers, each rally is a window; for buyers, the floor depends on the size of the 2027 crop.
