The market gave up on a 2026 rate cut: Focus now sees the Selic on hold at 13.75%
The year-end forecast rose from 13.50% to 13.75%. For 2027, 12.50%. Expected 2027 inflation also rose.
To save you time3
- What changed in Focus?
- The median end-2026 Selic rose from 13.50% to 13.75%: the market no longer sees a cut this year.
- And 2027?
- Selic at 12.50% and IPCA at 4.90% (from 4.76%).
- And growth?
- 2026 GDP at 1.75% (from 1.76%) and 2027 at 1.15% (from 1.20%).
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This week's Focus survey took the last 2026 rate cut off the table: the median year-end Selic rose from 13.50% to 13.75%: the current level.
The forecasts
- Selic: 13.75% in 2026, 12.50% in 2027, 11% in 2028.
- IPCA: 5.22% in 2026; 4.90% in 2027 (from 4.76%).
- GDP: 1.75% in 2026; 1.15% in 2027.
What it means
The market sees the central bank on hold through year-end and stickier inflation in 2027.
What I would watch
For agribusiness, higher-for-longer rates mean costly credit just as rural delinquency rises and Banco do Brasil tightens. Investors in CDI-linked CRAs, CPRs and Fiagros stay well paid; farmers borrowing that money to plant foot the bill.
