China Desk: Brazil's beef quota is gone. Until December, selling to China means a 67% tariff
Brazil has used its entire 2026 quota. Since October 1, anything above it pays 55% more. Beijing rejected Uruguay's quota.
To save you time4
- What happened?
- Brazil used up the ~1.1m-ton beef quota China set for 2026, according to China's Ministry of Commerce (商务部).
- What does selling above the quota cost?
- A 55% surcharge on top of the regular 12%: 67% in total since October 1.
- Did Brazil try to negotiate?
- Yes. Lula said Uruguay offered its unused quota, but industry sources say Beijing didn't accept.
- What should I watch?
- The 2027 quota. Chinese media talk of a bigger quota and lower surcharge (45% in 2027, 35% in 2028), but official confirmation is pending.
中文源Original Chinese sourceView original ↗
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This broke first in Chinese, and it's the kind of thing that hits listed meatpackers directly.
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM, 商务部) confirmed it: Brazil has used up its entire quota of about 1.1 million tons of beef for 2026. It's the safeguard regime Beijing set up in January to protect Chinese cattle farmers.
What changes in practice
Since October 1, every ton above the quota pays a 55% surcharge on top of the usual 12%. That's 67% in total. For most cuts, the math simply doesn't work.
The negotiation stalled
Lula said Uruguay agreed to hand its unused quota to Brazil. But according to industry sources quoted in the press, Beijing didn't accept: not for 2026, not for 2027. Reuters notes China had already said no in May. MOFCOM isn't commenting.
How it reaches you
If you follow BEEF3 or MBRF3, the effect is on the mix: beef that would have gone to China through December will be sold in markets that pay less. Industry group Abiec already projects beef exports down about 10% this year.
What I'd watch
The 2027 quota. Chinese media talk of a larger quota and a falling surcharge (45% in 2027, 35% in 2028), but there's no official number yet. That's what the China Desk will track, straight from MOFCOM, in Chinese.
