NeoSeed
NeoSeed Indices
Our own numbers, with fixed rules and public sources, to read Brazilian agribusiness the way markets do. Feel free to cite: "Index X, NeoSeed".
Recent signals
When an index crosses a fixed threshold it becomes a signal here, and a WhatsApp alert for subscribers (send INDEX).
Nov 3, 2026
Cattle & beef: funds at their most bearish in 3 years
Speculators' net position at 10.7% of open interest (8th percentile over 3 years). Extremes often precede price turns.
Oct 1, 2026
Export Pulse Sugar & ethanol at 74.6: a weak month
Exports in 2026-10 below the same month's 3-year average (base 100).
Oct 1, 2026
Export Pulse Coffee at 132.2: a very strong month
Exports in 2026-10 above the same month's 3-year average (base 100).
Oct 1, 2026
Export Pulse Cotton at 126.6: a very strong month
Exports in 2026-10 above the same month's 3-year average (base 100).
Oct 1, 2026
Export Pulse Soybeans at 124.1: a very strong month
Exports in 2026-10 above the same month's 3-year average (base 100).
Oct 1, 2026
Export Pulse Chicken at 124.3: a very strong month
Exports in 2026-10 above the same month's 3-year average (base 100).
Sep 1, 2026
CRA delinquency rose to 2.36%
From 0.24% the month before: unpaid instalments over total receivables of all CRAs filed with the CVM.
Aug 1, 2026
Rural credit · Paraná: from cooling to cold
Rural Credit Thermometer at 27.0 (from 39.6).
NeoSeed Crush
What is left, in reais, for whoever crushes 1 tonne of soybeans and sells meal and oil.
Latest
R$ 572/t
74th percentile of the last 3 years
Nov 13, 2026 · 3-year average R$ 486/t
Methodology · v1 · 13/11/2026▾
- Formula
- (0.79 × meal + 0.19 × oil − beans) × USD/BRL. Chicago futures converted to US$/t (beans: ¢/bushel ÷ 100 × 36.7437; meal: US$/short ton × 1.10231; oil: ¢/lb ÷ 100 × 2,204.62) and to reais at the same day's exchange rate.
- Sources
- CBOT/CME (ZS, ZM, ZL) and USD/BRL closing quotes via Yahoo Finance.
- Frequency
- Daily, after the Chicago close.
- Revisions
- No revisions: the close is final. Changes to yields or contracts create a new version.
- How to read
- Chicago parity, no port premium: it tracks the direction of industry margins (3tentos, Bunge, ADM, Cargill). High margins support inland bean demand; low margins do the opposite.
NeoSeed Export Pulse
The month's exports versus the average of the same month in the previous three years. Above 100, the month is stronger than usual.
Latest · Total
108.9
base 100 = 3-year average
October 2026
Methodology · v1 · 13/11/2026▾
- Formula
- Month's exports (US$ FOB) ÷ average of the same month in the previous three years × 100. By chain (soy: beans, meal and oil; corn; cane: sugar and ethanol; beef; chicken; coffee; pulp; cotton) and in total.
- Sources
- Comex Stat (Brazil's trade ministry), HS4 headings for each chain.
- Frequency
- Monthly, when the ministry publishes the month (usually the first week of the next month).
- Revisions
- The six most recent months are recalculated daily, as the ministry revises data.
- How to read
- Comparing a month with itself in prior years removes seasonality. It measures value, not volume: higher prices also lift the index.
Farmer Purchasing Power
How many bags a farmer must sell to pay for 1 tonne of fertilizer. Lower is better for the farmer.
Urea × corn
30.9 bags/t
66th percentile of the series
October 2026 · series average 29.9
Potash × soybeans
11.6 bags/t
47th percentile of the series
October 2026 · series average 12.9
Methodology · v1 · 13/11/2026▾
- Formula
- Fertilizer price (US$/t) ÷ (grain price in US$/t × 0.06). The currency cancels out: the ratio holds in reais or dollars.
- Sources
- World Bank "Pink Sheet" (CC BY 4.0): urea, potassium chloride, maize and soybeans, monthly averages.
- Frequency
- Monthly, when the World Bank updates (early each month).
- Revisions
- The six most recent months are recalculated on each update.
- How to read
- International benchmarks (not farm-gate prices), useful for comparing over time. Urea is the cost of second-crop corn; potash, of soybeans.
中 China Exposure Index
How much each listed company's chains and plants depend on China, from 0 to 100. Not the company's revenue: the exposure of what it produces and where it can sell.
| Company | CEI | China in its chains | China-approved plants | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEEF3 Minerva | 50.7 | 43% | 5/8 | -6.5 |
| TTEN3 3tentos | 46.5 | 47% | n/d | -5.7 |
| SUZB3 Suzano | 43.1 | 43% | n/d | -1.6 |
| JBSS32 JBS | 42.4 | 31% | 28/47 | -2.9 |
| MBRF3 MBRF (Marfrig + BRF) | 39.9 | 27% | 9/15 | -1.5 |
| SLCE3 SLC Agrícola | 36.3 | 36% | n/d | -1.8 |
| AGRO3 BrasilAgro | 34.3 | 34% | n/d | -4.5 |
| CSAN3 Cosan | 19.4 | 19% | n/d | -3.1 |
| VBBR3 Vibra | 8.6 | 9% | n/d | -2.1 |
| JALL3 Jalles Machado | 8.6 | 9% | n/d | -2.1 |
| SMTO3 São Martinho | 8.6 | 9% | n/d | -2.1 |
| RAIZ4 Raízen | 8.6 | 9% | n/d | -2.1 |
Methodology · v1 · 13/11/2026▾
- Formula
- CEI = 100 × [0.6 × A + 0.4 × B] for companies with federally inspected slaughter; CEI = 100 × A otherwise. A = weighted sum (by the company's chain weights) of China's share of Brazilian exports in each chain (rolling 12 months). B = the company's slaughter plants approved for China ÷ its total slaughter plants.
- Sources
- Comex Stat for exports by country; SIF/MAPA open data (CC-BY) for plants and approvals; chain weights (v1): SLCE3 soy 50%, cotton 35%, corn 15%; AGRO3 soy 55%, cane 25%, corn 20%; TTEN3 soy 80%, corn 20%; CSAN3 cane 50%, soy 25%, corn 25%; MBRF3 chicken 55%, beef 45%; JBSS32 beef 60%, chicken 40%; others 100% in their single chain.
- Frequency
- Monthly, with Comex exports; plants are updated when SIF publishes.
- Revisions
- Recent months are recalculated when the ministry revises. New weights create a new version.
- How to read
- Above 50, the company depends heavily on China (good when China buys, risky when it stops). JBS is global: the index covers only its Brazilian operations.
Rural Credit Thermometer
Whether money is reaching the farm, from 0 (freezing) to 100 (hot). It combines credit issued, delinquency and real interest rates into one score.
Brazil
21.1
cold
August 2026
Short series: it starts once there are 12 months of credit to compare.
Components
- Credit issued
- 25
- -16.5%
- Delinquency
- 26
- +2.4 p.p.
- Real rate
- 12
- 9.8% a.a.
By state
- RJ46
- ES36
- CE35
- PB34
- AL32
- MG30
- RN27
- PR27
- BA25
- MT25
- PI24
- PE23
- RS22
- RO20
- SE19
- SC19
- MA17
- AM16
- MS16
- RR15
- AC13
- AP13
- DF13
- GO13
- PA13
- SP13
- TO13
Methodology · v1 · 13/11/2026▾
- Formula
- Average of three 0 to 100 scores. Credit: 50 + 1.5 × change in credit issued (3 months vs. the same months a year earlier). Delinquency: 50 − 10 × 12-month change (p.p.) in the average of individuals and companies. Real rate: 50 − 8 × (Selic − 12-month IPCA − 5). Bands: below 35 cold; 35 to 45 cooling; 45 to 55 neutral; 55 to 65 warming; above 65 hot.
- Sources
- SICOR/Central Bank (credit by state), SGS 21148 and 21136 (rural delinquency), SGS 432 (Selic) and 13522 (12-month IPCA).
- Frequency
- Monthly, when SICOR consolidates the month.
- Revisions
- Recalculated with each SICOR load. Delinquency and rates are national; credit is by state.
- How to read
- A cold reading means shorter working-capital credit, later input purchases and more demand for CPR, Fiagro and trader credit. It weighs on banks (BBAS3), input dealers and machinery and storage makers.
Fund Positioning
How speculators are positioned in the contracts that move Brazilian agribusiness. Positive is net long; negative, net short.
| Market | Net position | 3-year percentile | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | +17.1%(-3.7) | 75 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Corn | +7.2%(-3.6) | 64 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Cattle & beef | +10.7%(-1.4) | 8 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Coffee | +7.2%(-2.4) | 3 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Sugar & ethanol | +15.6%(-1.1) | 94 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Cotton | +19.6%(-1.1) | 74 | Nov 3, 2026 |
Methodology · v1 · 13/11/2026▾
- Formula
- Non-commercial net position (long − short) ÷ open interest × 100, Commitments of Traders (legacy, futures only). The week's percentile within the last 156 weeks.
- Sources
- CFTC public data: soybeans and corn (CBOT), live cattle (CME), coffee, sugar and cotton (ICE).
- Frequency
- Weekly (Tuesday data, published Friday).
- Revisions
- No revisions; new contracts create a new version.
- How to read
- A percentile above 90 or below 10 is an extreme position: it often precedes corrections, as few buyers (or sellers) are left to push prices.
NeoSeed Protein Index
The state of meat in one number, by species: slaughter, exports and meat prices versus feed costs. Above 100, better than usual.
Beef
90.9
base 100 = 3-year average
October 2026
- Slaughter
- 84.3
- Exports
- 95.9
- Meat × feed
- 92.5
Chicken
101.3
base 100 = 3-year average
October 2026
- Slaughter
- 78.0
- Exports
- 124.3
- Meat × feed
- 101.7
Methodology · v1 · 13/11/2026▾
- Formula
- Average of three base-100 components: inspected slaughter (SIF) for the month ÷ the same month's 3-year average; the chain's Export Pulse; and meat price (US$/t) ÷ feed cost (beef: corn; chicken: 65% corn + 35% meal) versus the previous 36-month average.
- Sources
- SIF/MAPA (slaughter by species), Comex Stat (exports) and World Bank Pink Sheet (beef, São Paulo chicken since 2021, maize and meal).
- Frequency
- Monthly.
- Revisions
- The six most recent months are recalculated on each update.
- How to read
- Slaughter below 100 with high prices means herd retention (the cattle cycle): less supply for packers now, more later. The beef price benchmark is international.
NeoSeed Indices are information, not investment advice. Methodology v1 · 13/11/2026.
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