China hit the brakes on soybeans. Brazil still wins the year, but Q4 belongs to the US
Beijing is meeting its pledge to the Americans. Brazilian beans pay lower tariffs and lead the year, but lose volume right now.
To save you time4
- What did China do?
- It delayed new soybean purchases. In October it had 6.4m tons booked from the US versus 3.3m from Brazil.
- Why is the US ahead?
- It's US harvest season, and China pledged to buy 25m tons a year from the US through 2028.
- Has Brazil lost the market?
- No. Through September China received 65.8m tons from Brazil vs. 11.1m from the US. And Brazilian beans pay a 3% tariff; US beans, 13%.
- Is there a long-term risk?
- Yes: a study cited in the press projects Chinese soybean imports could fall up to 25% by 2030.
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If you follow soybeans, here's the moment: China has eased off buying, and what little it buys now comes from the US.
What's happening
October and November are the US harvest window. Add the deal in which China pledged to buy 25 million tons a year from the US through 2028 (13.7 million already booked), and it shows in the contracts: in October, 6.4 million tons from the US vs. 3.3 million from Brazil.
But relax
Year to date, Brazil still owns the game. Through September, China received 65.8 million tons of Brazilian soybeans versus 11.1 million from the US. And there's an edge that won't go away: US beans pay a 13% tariff in China; ours pay 3%. Abiove still projects record exports of 113.9 million tons in 2026.
What it does to your world
Fewer ships to China now means weaker port premiums and slower revenue for traders and exporters until our harvest comes in.
The risk I wouldn't ignore
A study cited in the press sees Chinese soybean imports falling up to 25% by 2030. If you depend on a single buyer, the question isn't "how much does China buy this month", it's "how much will it need five years from now".
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