China Desk: Chinese credit moved slowly in October, and markets no longer expect broad rate cuts this year
The People's Bank of China reported total social financing of 28.61 trillion yuan from January to October, 2.29 trillion less than a year earlier. Chinese analysts see a lower chance of broad rate and reserve ratio cuts in 2026.
To save you time4
- What did the PBoC release?
- October credit data: total social financing reached 28.61 trillion yuan year to date, 2.29 trillion less than in the same period of 2025.
- What about M2?
- M2, the broad money measure, ended October at 359.06 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year on year.
- What do analysts say?
- Wang Qing (Dongfang Jincheng) sees a lower chance of broad rate and reserve cuts by year end. Wen Bin (Minsheng Bank) sees limited short-term need.
- Why does it matter for Brazil?
- China's credit and stimulus pace helps set demand for Brazilian soybeans, beef and pulp.
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Straight to it: the People's Bank of China (PBoC, the central bank) released October credit data on Friday (13), and Chinese analysts read it as a sign Beijing won't pull the big stimulus lever before year end.
The numbers
Total social financing (社会融资规模, which adds loans, bonds and other sources) reached 28.61 trillion yuan from January to October, 2.29 trillion less than a year earlier. October alone added 1.15 trillion.
The outstanding stock reached 469.16 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year on year. M2 (cash plus deposits) hit 359.06 trillion, up 7.1%. Yuan loans added 11.42 trillion year to date.
Money is still cheap: the average rate on new corporate loans was about 2.9% in October, 0.2 point lower than a year earlier.
What they're saying there
Wang Qing of Dongfang Jincheng told 21st Century Business Herald that the likelihood of broad tools such as rate and reserve ratio cuts before year end has fallen: "年底前使用全面降息降准等总量型货币政策工具的可能性下降". Wen Bin of Minsheng Bank agreed: the need for broad cuts in the short term is limited.
What matters for Brazil
If you export to China, credit growth there is a demand gauge. Slow credit and no broad stimulus in sight suggest Chinese demand won't accelerate soon. That takes some strength out of soybean, beef and pulp prices.
What I'd watch
October activity data (industry, retail and investment), due from China's statistics bureau on Monday (16). It will show whether slow credit is already hitting consumption.
Sources
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