Rain halted the wheat harvest in southern Brazil. Now the problem is finding good wheat
Mills pay more for quality lots, but cheap Argentine wheat holds prices back. Conab sees a 27% smaller crop.
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- What happened?
- November rains halted harvesting in several southern regions and hurt grain quality.
- What are prices?
- R$1,555.77 per tonne in Paraná and R$1,465.99 in Rio Grande do Sul (Cepea, Nov 9), both slightly down in the month.
- Why aren't prices spiking?
- Argentine wheat got cheaper for November and December shipment, limiting domestic gains.
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November rains halted the wheat harvest in several parts of southern Brazil. The problem now is not just volume: it is quality.
Prices
- Paraná: R$1,555.77 per tonne (Cepea, Nov 9), -0.9% in the month.
- Rio Grande do Sul: R$1,465.99, -1.1%.
- In Porto Alegre, bids rose R$30/t: mills pay more for good lots. Feed wheat loses value.
Why no spike
Argentine wheat got cheaper for November and December shipment, capping gains.
Crop size
Conab projects 5.7 million tonnes in 2026/27, 27% less than the previous cycle.
What I would watch
A smaller, poorer crop means more imports. With the dollar at R$5.65, flour gets pricier, mills and pasta and biscuit makers will feel it next quarter.
