Ethanol stored in Brazil's Center-South fell 13.3%. Anhydrous, the kind blended into gasoline, shrank over 20%
Agriculture Ministry data show 7.67 billion liters in stock at the end of October. Anhydrous fell 20.7%, with a higher gasoline blend pulling demand.
To save you time4
- How much ethanol is in stock?
- 7.67 billion liters in the Center-South on October 31, 13.3% below the same day in 2025, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
- Why did anhydrous fall more?
- Anhydrous dropped 20.7% to 2.85 billion liters. The report links it to the gasoline blend rising from 30% to 32% from August.
- What about production?
- In the second half of October, ethanol output fell 13.3% to 1.68 billion liters. Season to date it is up 3% at 28.1 billion liters.
- What does it signal?
- Tighter supply for the off-season, which tends to support prices and benefit those holding stock.
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Here's the number that matters for the off-season: Brazil's Center-South had 7.67 billion liters of ethanol in stock on October 31, 13.3% less than on the same day last year. The data come from the Agriculture Ministry, released Thursday (12), according to Reuters. In the first half of the month, the drop had been 8%.
Where it's tight
The standout is anhydrous, the ethanol blended into gasoline. Stocks fell 20.7% to 2.85 billion liters. The report links this to the mandatory blend rising from 30% to 32% from August: more ethanol in gasoline, less left in the tank.
Hydrous, the kind you pump straight into a flex-fuel car, fell 8.3% to 4.83 billion liters.
Production lost steam
In the second half of October, ethanol output fell 13.3% to 1.68 billion liters, even as cane crushing rose 3.6% to 32.3 million tonnes. Sugar was roughly flat at 2.08 million tonnes.
For the 2026/27 season to date, since April, ethanol is up 3% at 28.1 billion liters. Sugar is down 13.8% at 32.9 million tonnes, with crushing 2.6% lower at 542 million tonnes.
What matters here
Short stocks on the eve of the off-season (when mills stop crushing) usually support prices. Mills that held product, as Jalles did this quarter, are better placed. And corn ethanol, produced year round, gains ground.
What I'd watch
The next biweekly stock reports and hydrous prices at the pump. If the squeeze holds, parity with gasoline (the point where ethanol stops paying off in a flex car) becomes the demand gauge.
